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The European Union risks missing its 2040 smoke-free goal if it lets political decisions inform evidence, ������Ƶ (BAT) said today in response to the publication of the��European Commission’s evaluation report on the current EU tobacco and nicotine legislation.

The Commission's report, published today, reveals that the draft report received a negative��opinion from the Commission’s own Regulatory Scrutiny Board late last year. The report��acknowledges that it couldn't make a clear distinction between the contributions of specific��policy measures, and admits to making no effort to assess the impact of ‘external factors’, like��consumer preferences or the availability of smokeless alternatives, on smoking rates.

According to the Commission’s own Better Regulation guidelines, these evaluations should��follow a rigorous evidence-based process in which “evidence informs political decisions – not��the other way around.” Yet after four years of work, the process appears to have strayed far from��that standard, departing from the transparent, inclusive and evidence-led approach the��Commission repeatedly promised.

BAT’s six key concerns with the Evaluation Report

1. A biased evaluation process. Stakeholder consultation has prioritised opinion over��evidence and ignored the interests of adult nicotine consumers, rural communities, SMEs,��business organisations and even members of the European Parliament. Meanwhile, a��Bloomberg-funded NGO syndicate ideologically opposed to nicotine use was awarded a��€3M contract by DG SANTE to support the review. The Commission claims that the��evaluation report is backed by a ‘broad and diverse’ set of evidence, even though the NGO��study is not publicly available or open to scrutiny.
2. Bans don’t work. Across the EU, bans and heavy restrictions on smokeless products don’t��eliminate demand. Instead, they push consumers to illegal markets with no age checks,��safety standards or tax revenues. In the Netherlands, underage vaping rose 15% between��2023 and 2025 after a flavoured vapour ban¹. The Frauenhofer Institute estimates that��around 50% of the EU vapour market is now illegal or non-compliant².��
3. The Commission is not serious about science. DG SANTE relies on incomplete evidence,��fails to assess smokeless products properly against cigarettes, and repeats claims widely��rejected by scientists. The report calls vaping a gateway to smoking, despite strong��evidence that record numbers of adult smokers have switched to vapour products.
4. Selective evidence and predetermined conclusions: The report references��Eurobarometer data on adult smokers switching to smokeless products, yet fails to��include these products among the listed reasons of a change in behaviour. This internal��inconsistency points to a selective use of evidence, with data being highlighted or omitted��in a way that supports a predetermined narrative.
5. The Commission’s own watchdog has rejected the evaluation. The European��Commission’s oversight body, the Regulatory Scrutiny Board, issued a negative opinion��on the evaluation – a signal that it does not meet basic Better Regulation standards.��Despite attempts to address the shortcomings identified by the Board, key factors��impacting smoking rates, such as consumer preferences and the availability of alternative��nicotine products, remain unaddressed. As a result, the evaluation cannot credibly��underpin far-reaching new regulation without substantial correction.
6. A big question remains unanswered: Are the problems caused by countries not applying��the rules correctly, or by not enforcing them? That missing clarity makes the whole picture��blurry. The report should spell out whether the real issues come from how countries��applied the EU rules or how they enforced them. Without this, it’s impossible to pinpoint��why the framework isn’t delivering as intended.��Eurobarometer data shows that countries pairing smart regulation of smokeless products with��strict cigarette rules – such as Sweden, Czechia and Greece – have cut smoking far faster than the��rest of the EU. Across the block, smoking still stands at 24%, down only two percentage points��since the 2014 introduction of the current TPD³.

Fabio de Petris, Vice President EU External Affairs at ������Ƶsaid:

“A smoke-free EU by 2040 will require smart regulation of smokeless nicotine products. Had the��Commission followed the science, it would have acknowledged the extensive evidence that��these products have a reduced risk profile compared with cigarettes, with millions of adult��smokers switching to them.

“Rather than reducing demand, many regulations have proven unenforceable and are pushing��consumers into illegal markets run by criminals, with no age checks, safety standards or tax��revenues, and the Commission has failed to properly evaluate this.

“The report raises serious doubts about whether the Commission is following the evidence or is��simply justifying a pre-determined agenda that will set back progress toward a smoke-free EU.”

������Ƶremains committed to A Better Tomorrow™ and the vision of a smokeless world. The��company believes smart regulation of vapour, nicotine pouch and heated tobacco products can��advance public health while maintaining government oversight of a market generating over��€107 billion in annual tax revenue⁴ and supporting nearly 1.45 million jobs⁵.